Introduction
Ah – the start of a new year, full of promise and the hope of strong financial performance. In 2020 our net worth was up by $1M – can 2021 deliver another stellar year?
Without further ado, here is our net worth report for February, 2021:
Our net worth for the month was up 2.0%, which underperformed the S&P’s +2.76%. Our mix of cash, real estate, and equities means that our performance should be less volatile than the stock market – we should underperform when markets are up but outperform when markets are down.
Money Commando True Wealth Index
I track our net worth in both the “real” numbers and the Money Commando True Wealth Index (or MCTWI for short). The MCTWI is a quick and dirty way to provide a more stable and “true” valuation of the stock market by adjusting for valuation (that is, PE ratios that are higher or lower than the long-term market average).
As a reminder – the MCTWI tells you how much your stock investments would be worth assuming “normal” valuation rather than the current valuation in the market.
The net worth report below includes an adjustment for the Money Commando True Wealth Index (MCTWI). The MCTWI for February, 2021 is 41%. This indicates that the stock market’s is likely substantially overvalued.
If the market was suddenly revalued at the long-term average of 15.89x earnings rather than the current 38.78x earnings, then your stock market investments would be worth roughly 41% of what they are currently worth.
I think this point bears repeating – the US stock market appears to be extremely overvalued based on PE ratios, and the stock market’s valuation is more than double its normal, long-term valuation.
Let’s take a closer look at our assets and liabilities.
Assets
Brokerage (+3.4% Month, +2.8% YTD):
Our investments did a bit better than the S&P 500 and we ended up a solid $121k for the month. Our performance was actually even better than this, because I transferred $50,000 from our brokerage to our checking for a private investment we are making.
Retirement Accounts (+1.7% Month, +10.8% YTD)
This includes a 401(k), two IRAs, and two Roth IRAs (one of each for my wife and me). The only account we are currently contributing to is the 401(k), as we aren’t eligible to continue to the IRAs.
Of course, any withdrawals from these accounts will be taxed at our marginal income tax rate, which means we should probably be valuing these accounts at a ~30% discount.
529 accounts (+0.1% Month, +4.8% YTD):
We are contributing $500/month/child into these accounts, and given that our kids are 6 and 5, we are approaching the point where we have enough money in these accounts and it will make sense to stop contributing.
Assuming both of our kids go to college, both accounts will be completely liquidated in about 20 years. Based on my calculations, these accounts should pay for 90%+ of the total 4-year cost at a state university. The remaining amounts will be paid out of our then-current cash flow.
Checking (+76.9% Month, +127.1% YTD):
Our goal is to keep about $50k in cash in our checking account. This is due to an abundance of caution. I work in an inherently unstable field (sales) and my income varies widely from month to month. Keeping a good chunk of cash in our checking account helps me sleep well at night.
This number is misleading due to the $50k we transferred from our brokerage. This money was invested in March and our checking account number will look more normal going forward.
Private investments: (+0% Month, +0% YTD):
We have 3 separate private equity investments. Since there’s no way to value these investments I will continue to keep them valued at my initial investment amount unless/until we are provided information about an updated valuation.
No update this month.
Stock options: (+0% Month, +87.2% Year)
These options vest quarterly and a new block of stock vested on January 1st.
The next block of options will vest on April 1, 2021 and should be worth $6,125.
Rental properties (+0% Month, +0% YTD):
I update the value of our investments at the end of each quarter.
No update this month.
Primary residence (+0% Month, +0% YTD):
I update the value of our investments at the end of each quarter.
No update this month.
Total Assets (+2.1% Month, +3.2% YTD):
Our assets increased in value by about $178k, which is a pretty solid month by just about anybody’s standards.
Total assets after adjusting for MCTWI (+1.7% Month, +2.4% YTD):
To get this number I adjust our brokerage, retirement accounts, and 529 accounts based on the MCTWI. Our checking, private equity, stock options, rental properties, and primary residence values are NOT adjusted for the MCTWI.
Liabilities
Just a note on the numbers below – since these are liabilities, a negative number (reduction in liability) is good, while a positive number (and increase in liabilities) is bad.
Credit cards (-52.9% Month, -81.9% YTD)
We pay our balances in full each month, so the ebb and flow of our balance is more reflective of when our payment is made than anything else.
Rental mortgages (-0.1% Month, -0.3% YTD)
We are chipping away at these mortgages, and we’ve been paying off 0.2% – 0.3% of the balance each month. The payment looked a bit less this month just because of the timing of some of the payments.
At the rate we are paying off our mortgages we are 20+ years from retiring these loans.
Primary residence mortgage (-0.4% Month, -0.4% YTD)
We refinanced our mortgage in October, which lowered our payment by about $850/month. The loan promptly got sold and I couldn’t look up the balance last month. The balance on the loan is now correct.
At our insanely low interest rate I don’t see any reason to pay this off early. I expect we’ll hold this mortgage for the next 29.5 years.
Total liabilities (-0.3% Month, -0.7% YTD)
We now have under $1.2M in liabilities, and we could possibly be under $1.15 by the end of the year.
Total net worth (+2.5% Month, +3.8% YTD)
Our net worth was up by a total of $182k for the month. It’s amazing what the combination of saving, investing, and time can do.
We are certainly on track to grow our net worth by another $1M this year, although I think the chances of that happening are very small, as I expect a market correction sometime this year.
Conclusion
Nothing major to report this month. Our investments continue to perform as expected. My job is stable and our cash flow allows us to pay our bills and invest the extra.
Looking forward to 2021 it’s hard to imagine that we’ll see anything close to another $1M increase in net worth. In fact, I would not be surprised if our net worth actually went down in 2021, as I think the market richly valued and likely due for a large correction.
How did everybody else do this month? What’s your asset allocation, and how does it compare to your ideal allocation?
Given the insane overvaluation of domestic stocks, I’d be curious if you’ve considered increasing the weighting of international stocks in your portfolio? If you were rebuilding from scratch in today’s market, would you go as heavy into domestic as you currently are?
I agree that I am heavily weighted domestically, and I am planning on balancing that out over the next few years. I’ll likely use international mutual funds for this, as I don’t know enough about accounting and legal regulations overseas to feel comfortable buying individual stocks.
However, I don’t think I’m as underweight as it seems, given that most of my investments are large companies that, although headquartered in the US, derive a significant portion of sakes and profits overseas. For example, Philip Morris is a “US company” because it’s headquartered here, but 100% of sakes are overseas.
It would be interesting to do an analysis on how much sakes and profits for my investments come from overseas.